Independent analysis of coal's grip on the South African economy — from Eskom's power crisis and mining communities to the environmental fallout reshaping Mpumalanga and beyond.
Critical coverage of the forces shaping the nation's energy future, from boardrooms to coal-dusted communities.
The Integrated Resource Plan 2025, approved by President Ramaphosa, targets decommissioning 8 GW of coal capacity by 2030, reducing coal from 58% to 27% of generation by 2039. Yet Eskom is simultaneously considering extending plant life from 50 to 60 years. The landmark #CancelCoal court ruling in December 2024 declared 1,500 MW of new coal capacity unconstitutional.
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Total JETP commitments have reached $13.7 billion, with the World Bank and G7 partners backing the transition. However, the US withdrew in February 2025, cancelling $56 million in grants. Germany increased its commitment by ~50% to compensate. The IRP 2025 targets decommissioning 8 GW of coal by 2030. Platforms tracking energy transition grants note growing momentum despite challenges.
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New studies have detected elevated levels of heavy metals in groundwater near ash dumps across the Highveld. The Department of Environment is under pressure to enforce stricter containment regulations as communities report discoloured water supplies.
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Richards Bay Coal Terminal exports rose 11% to 57.66 million tonnes in 2025 — the highest in four years — buoyed by Transnet rail recovery. India remains the largest buyer at 45% of shipments. Yet API4 prices have softened to around $109/tonne, and the terminal still operates well below its 91 Mt design capacity. According to the Minerals Council South Africa, private rail operators may add 20 Mt to export volumes by 2027.
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Research shows coal pollution in Mpumalanga causes approximately 550 deaths and 117,200 hospital admissions annually. Eskom's four worst-polluting stations — Kendal, Matla, Lethabo, and Kriel — are responsible for 95% of coal-related deaths. As mine closures loom, displaced workers increasingly depend on social relief programmes — resources like SASSA grant status checks have seen surging demand in coal belt regions.
Read analysis →The numbers tell a story of immense economic significance — and growing vulnerability.
Coal has been the backbone of South Africa's energy infrastructure for over a century. The mineral fuels roughly 80% of the national grid through Eskom's fleet of coal-fired stations, most of which are concentrated in Mpumalanga province. The sector sustains approximately 90,000 direct mining jobs and generates over R50 billion in annual export revenue, making it a pillar of the national economy.
However, the long-term outlook is shifting. Global thermal coal demand is projected to decline as nations pursue net-zero targets, and South Africa's own Just Energy Transition Investment Plan envisions a fundamental restructuring. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy is tasked with balancing energy security against the need for diversification. The transition will inevitably displace thousands of workers, particularly in coal-dependent towns like eMalahleni and Secunda.
Managing this shift equitably is the defining challenge. International funding through the JETP framework aims to cushion the blow — platforms such as GrantZA help affected communities navigate available support. Community advocates warn that assistance must reach displaced households directly and swiftly.
Behind every megawatt lies a trail of ash, polluted water, and compromised air quality affecting millions.
Coal ash contains a cocktail of toxic heavy metals that, without proper containment, leach steadily into surrounding soil and aquifers. Communities near ash disposal facilities in Mpumalanga and the Free State have documented elevated levels of:
The Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment has identified several high-risk sites, but enforcement of containment standards remains inconsistent.
Residents of coal belt communities face disproportionately high rates of respiratory illness. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from coal combustion and windblown ash penetrates deep into lung tissue, contributing to:
Health advocacy groups are pushing for comprehensive epidemiological studies and expanded clinic capacity in affected areas, where public health infrastructure is already strained.
Use our calculators to model transition scenarios and estimate your household's carbon footprint.
Estimate how long it will take South Africa to reduce coal dependency based on renewable energy investment rates and current capacity plans.
Estimate your household's annual carbon footprint based on electricity usage, transport, and lifestyle factors in a South African context.